Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.