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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."