Aston Villa Defy All Gravity Again as Winning Streak Continues at Chelsea
It simply cannot continue. The logic defies rational sense that it persists. And yet, it does.
A Record-Chasing Victory Defying Expectations
Aston Villa entered the weekend's top-flight clash at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and could have added several more. However, Chelsea have shown frailty when ahead, especially at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable knack of snatching wins on the road from losing positions.
First, the striker leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his leg and the post following his initial shot was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he secured the decisive goal with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might feel some fortune was overdue, and it's undeniable the equalizing goal involved a significant element of luck. Currently, though, Lady Luck is favoring Villa.
The Numbers Of an Unlikely Run
The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a single goal. They have kept a shutout in just one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been better in just six of those encounters, and in two of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern seems unsustainable, yet pundits have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their results will eventually align with their performances or if their level of play can improve to justify the points haul.
This seems unsustainable be possible, but everyone has been stating that for a while and Villa keep on winning.
A Core Characteristic: Resilience
Coming from behind is not just a feature of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those were secured this term, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have scored 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.
- Firstly, they possess a profound confidence that means no deficit ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
- Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at changing games with his use of the bench.
A Masterful Change
While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1-1.4, Villa became the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Watkins came on for Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs behind the defensive line created issues. Onana and Sancho also came on, strengthening the center and adding the width they had eschewed earlier.
The Blues registered ten attempts to Villa's none before the changes; afterwards, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, opposing manager Maresca struggled to react as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is better at devising a tactical plan with preparation time than making adjustments in the moment.
Individual Brilliance
Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of players producing pieces of sensational quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a seasonal theme. It was Malen who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's seldom the whole side playing flawlessly, but enough players within it stepping up to earn the victories.
The Road Ahead
Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its halfway stage, they must be viewed as part of the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that status. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.
The Gunners have assembled their own run of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a challenge for both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their championship pedigree.